Business Forecasting: Practical Problems and Solutions
Edited by Michael Gilliland, Len Tashman, Udo Sglavo
John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey
Since the year 2000 there have been significant advances in both computing power, and in software that can deliver large-scale automation of the forecasting function. Yet the real life practice of business forecasting has lagged far behind the advances in technology. By some accounts, forecast accuracy today is no better than it was 20 years ago. Organizations are failing to take advantage of improved technology, and continue to repeat the forecasting process mistakes of their predecessors.
To address these shortcomings, Business Forecasting: Practical Problems and Solutions compiles the field’s most important new literature into a single comprehensive reference for the business forecaster. The book’s 49 articles are packed with provocative ideas from academic researchers and thought leading practitioners, intended to help organizations analyze and improve their forecasting function.
Forecasting performance is ultimately limited by the “forecastability” of the data. Yet failing to recognize this, many organizations continue to squander resources pursuing unachievable levels of accuracy. This book provides practical methods for improving all aspects of the process – which is often achieved by eliminating the wasted efforts that fail to improve (or even harm) forecast accuracy.
Topics include forecasting process design, performance metrics, objective setting, participant roles, Forecast Value Added analysis, and more. The discussion is designed to drive critical analysis of current practices and consideration of new ideas. With a mix of formal, rigorous pieces and brief chapters on narrow topics, this book provides practitioners a comprehensive guide to the current state of the field.
The business environment is evolving, and forecasting methods must evolve alongside it. This compilation delivers an array of new tools and research that enable more efficient processes and more accurate results. Business Forecasting provides an expert’s-eye view of the field’s latest developments to help organizations achieve their desired business outcomes.
About the Editors:
Michael Gilliland is author of The Business Forecasting Deal, editor of the Forecasting Practice section of Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, and marketing manager for SAS forecasting software.
Len Tashman is founding editor of Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, Director of the Center for Business Forecasting, and emeritus professor of business administration at the University of Vermont. He serves on the Board of Directors of the International Institute of Forecasters.
Udo Sglavo has served on the practitioner advisory board of Foresight, and is Senior Director of Predictive Modeling R&D as SAS. He is a frequent blog contributor, and has published in Analytics magazine.
Download Chapter 1: Fundamental Considerations in Business Forecasting (LINK to .PDF)